Forecast
How much will be ordered next month — and how well it has guessed so far.
Section 3 of 7First, whether the forecast works; then how much will be ordered next month, with its range.
Next: Production planThe forecast misses by less than “same as last month”
How it forecasts. The product's average over the last three months, times how much its family moved that same month last year. Simple on purpose: it can be explained in a meeting and checked. What it doesn't do: guess a big order nobody announced.
The whole plant, in dollars
Oct 2026 · the whole plant
$1.12Mmost likely
$1.3Mcovers it 8 times in 10
The range comes from how far orders overshot the forecast over the last twelve months. Making only the “most likely” leaves you out of stock half the time.
Next section · Section 4 of 7
Production plan
Pick the service level, see what it would have cost and approve how much of each product to make.