AgribusinessSample data

Overview

What happened in Apr–Sep 2026 (weeks 14 to 39), and what's coming.

Section 1 of 8The farms at a glance: stems cut, flower and fruit sales, the cost per stem and how accurate the forecast is.

Next: Harvest forecast

Stems cut Apr–Sep 2026

11.8M

+25.0%vs. Apr–Sep 2025

Flower and fruit sales

$10.1M

+22.0%vs. Apr–Sep 2025

Cost per stem

$0.64

−8.0%$0.70 a year ago

Forecast error

10 in 100

“last week”: 14

More stems are being cut than a year ago

+25.0%9.5M → 11.8M stems
2026 2025

Look at May: this year's Mother's Day peak is higher, and so are the other weeks.

Canyon Creek's three new blocks explain most of it

85.7% of the extra stems

They've been producing since December 2025. The other blocks cut almost the same as a year ago.

The forecast sees the peaks coming

It misses by 10 in 100 stems; repeating last week's cut, by 14

With it, last year's availability list would have promised 165K stems that weren't there, instead of 1.1M, and brought in $124K more. Build the week 40 list

In peak weeks, the packhouse goes into overtime

In the 7 weeks of Valentine's and Mother's Day, 13 in 100 bunches were made in overtime; the rest of the year, 0.6%

At Valentine's and Mother's Day far more flowers come in than the packhouse can bunch in a regular shift. The rest goes out in overtime, at the end of long days: each hour makes less and costs a quarter more. An overtime bunch costs 52.5% more.

The May and June rains doubled the avocado culls

15.6% of what was weighed was cull in May and June, versus 7.6% in the same weeks of 2025 · in lot 4: 29.4% · 5,590 kg too many, about $30K that wasn't exported

May and June 2026 were among the rainiest in years: more fruit with fungus and bruises. Lot 4 is the lowest on the farm and flooded: that's where culls shot up. See fruit intake

Flower-farm costs in Apr–Sep 2026: $7.59M, +15.0% versus a year earlier, with +25.0% in stems; freight, +37.0%.

Next section · Section 2 of 8

Harvest forecast

First, whether the forecast works; then how many stems each block will give next week.