Harvest forecast
How many stems will be cut next week — and how well it has guessed.
Section 2 of 8First, whether the forecast works; then how many stems each block will give next week.
Next: AvailabilityThe forecast misses less than both rules of thumb
How it forecasts. The block's average over its last four weeks, times how much its color moved that same week last year. Simple on purpose: it can be explained in a meeting and checked. What it doesn't do: guess a hailstorm.
Both flower farms
wk 40 · Sep 28–Oct 4 · all colors
396,680stems, most likely
361,783you have them 8 times in 10
The range comes from how far short the cut fell of the forecast in the 26 weeks before the test. Offering “the most likely” leaves you short half the weeks.
| Block | Hectares | Stems Apr–Sep | Per hectare per week | Week 40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
M-05 · Snow Hilltop · White | 1.6 | 1,164,219+7.8% | 27,986 | 39,353 |
M-01 · Scarlet Hilltop · Red | 1.7 | 1,016,527+2.1% | 22,998 | 34,888 |
C-01 · Garnet Canyon Creek · Red | 1.6 | 1,016,345+3.3% | 24,431 | 34,991 |
C-02 · Pearl Canyon Creek · Pink | 1.5 | 963,597+6.3% | 24,708 | 28,955 |
M-04 · Aurora Hilltop · Pink | 1.6 | 953,944+8.3% | 22,931 | 26,123 |
C-07 · Pearl New Canyon Creek · Pink | 1.2 | 946,111 | 30,324 | 29,165 |
M-02 · Scarlet Hilltop · Red | 1.6 | 941,234+9.7% | 22,626 | 34,560 |
M-06 · Amber Hilltop · Yellow | 1.4 | 910,461+3.7% | 25,013 | 36,422 |
C-04 · Harlequin Canyon Creek · Bicolor | 1.4 | 754,318+2.8% | 20,723 | 27,059 |
C-03 · Ivory Canyon Creek · White | 1.5 | 734,944−0.8% | 18,845 | 24,471 |
C-05 · Aurora Canyon Creek · Pink | 1.5 | 713,189+1.1% | 18,287 | 21,840 |
M-03 · Garnet Hilltop · Red | 1.5 | 640,815−9.8% | 16,431 | 22,669 |
C-08 · Ivory New Canyon Creek · White | 1.2 | 596,722 | 19,126 | 19,703 |
C-06 · Scarlet New Canyon Creek · Red | 1.3 | 485,428 | 14,362 | 16,481 |
14 rose blocks on two farms. The new ones have been producing since December 2025.
Next section · Section 3 of 8
Availability
The list for buyers: choose how sure you want to be, see what would have happened and approve it.